Wednesday, April 16, 2008

GDP Decline in February?

According to this post at the WSJ Economic Blog, GDP may have been negative in February:

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers updated its monthly GDP estimate for February, showing a 1.2% decline in February. It was the second largest one-month decline in the nearly 16-year history of the index, behind a 1.6% drop in September 2001.

I don't know how accurate MA has been in the past, but I find it interesting that they are still forecasting a small GDP gain in the first quarter:

The firm currently expects GDP to grow 0.2% in the first quarter. The monthly GDP estimate is one of the estimates examined by the National Bureau of Economic Research when it is calculating when a recession has begun.

I am maintaining my prediction that we will still be able to avert a recession.

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