Friday, April 18, 2008

Don't Get Too Excited...Yet

The market has had a very good week, but a look at the charts will tell you that it's nothing to get excited about....yet:

We've been here before and until we get a close above the recent trading range there is nothing really to do unless you are a trader playing the ranges.

Having said that, I am encouraged by the earnings we've seen so far. With the exception of healthcare, pharma and financials, the earnings have been quite good. That should reinforce the point that this "crisis" is a financial event and not necessarily an economic one. Companies with significant revenue outside the US have done particularly well with the weak dollar. And that is also showing up in the divergence between growth and value. The S&P 500 growth has started to outperform and that is primarily due to non $US earnings.

Is this the breakout we've been waiting for? Not yet; we'll see if there is any follow through next week.

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