Monday, March 17, 2008

Contrarian Indicator

In what may be contrarian signal on the market, Goldman Sachs has politely asked Abby Joseph Cohen to shut up about the S&P 500:

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen, among the most bullish investment strategist on Wall Street this year, will stop making Standard & Poor's 500 Index forecasts for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

She was succeeded in the role by David Kostin, Goldman's U.S. investment strategist, spokesman Ed Canaday said in a telephone interview. Kostin today predicted the S&P 500 may fall 10 percent to 1,160 before rebounding to 1,380 by year's end.

The 56-year-old Cohen now has the title ``senior investment strategist'' and contributor to the portfolio strategy team, according to Canaday. She was Goldman's chief investment strategist.

I remember back in 1999 when I was at Oppenheimer and Mike Metz was "reassigned" for being too bearish. Of course, he got moved out within a few months of the top and he was proven correct about the market. He is now back as the strategist at Opy. If Abby Cohen has now lost her job (well she hasn't actually lost it; it just that when she goes there, someone else is doing it) and she's the most bullish on the Street, we may just be getting close to that elusive bottom. Food for thought anyway...

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