Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Bottom Indicators

Kiplinger has an article about indicators of a bottom in the stock market. Their conclusion is that we aren't there yet:

We stand by the old adage that nobody rings a bell when stock markets hit bottom. In fact, Jim Stack of InvesTech Research, who has a pretty good track record of calling bottoms, admits: "You're doing a good job if you recognize the bottom two months afterward. And even then you don't know if it's an interim bottom, or a new market low."

Nonetheless, Stack and other gurus have a handful of favorite indicators they like to watch for a heads-up on market turns. So far, most of those indicators suggest the market hasn't hit the bottom yet.

The only thing I would add to this is that indicators like this do not help us predict the level of the bottom. In other words, we may not be at the end of the bear market in time, but we still could have seen the lows in price.


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