Friday, September 08, 2006

More Forecasting Follies

Last month I wrote about the futility of economic forecasting. The post is here.

Now there's a new post about the same subject on TCS Daily:

The imprecision of economic forecasts isn't a comment on the forecasters' intelligence or work ethic. Rather, it demonstrates that the economy is too complex a system to be adequately captured by existing modeling techniques. The rational response to this realization is a combination of caution and humility.
Read the rest by clicking on the title of this post.

At AIM we invest such that we don't have to forecast the market or the economy. In fact, we will tell anyone who cares to listen that we cannot predict the future. Thankfully, a crystal ball is not required to be a good investor. Anyone who tells you that they can predict something as complex as the stock market or the economy is either lying or deluded.

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