Thursday, July 24, 2008

Odds of Recession

Futures markets are not infallible, but they are remarkably accurate at predicting future events. Prediction markets are now available from a variety of sources, including InTrade. Here's the current contract on the likelihood of a recession in 2008:

Stock market investors may be worried about the economy but apparently no one is betting directly on that outcome. If you're convinced of the doom and gloom that pervades much of the press, I suggest you go and make a bet at InTrade.

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