Given that backdrop, I believe the chance of Bernanke raising interest rates is essentially zero. I think the Fed's next move will be to ease rates, though I don't know if that will be three months or six months from now.
What I do know is that Bernanke is not really serious about containing inflation, as is obvious by how far the Fed has let it climb. He cares only about avoiding a downturn. So, when it looks like push has come to shove, Bernanke will ease again.
Push is coming to shove, and there's nothing he can do to stop that.
Certainly, Bill is in the minority in the view that the Fed will ease again. I like to take the contarian view too, but sometimes the majority is right. I don't expect the Fed to cut again; doing so after all the recent rhetoric to the contrary would do great damage to their credibility. And that is more important than the GDP growth rate.