Tuesday, December 18, 2007

The Clinton Housing Bubble

Vernon Smith, a professor of law and economics at George Mason University, has an editorial in the WSJ today titled, "The Clinton Housing Bubble". The gist of the article is that the cut in capital gains taxes for real estate during the Clinton administration contributed to the housing bubble. While I think that is true I think the more important factor was the extremely low interest rates of the Greenspan Fed.

The joint housing and mortgage-market crisis once again reminds us that all financial implosions stem from the same cause: borrowing short and lending long without enough equity to weather periodic storms in the gap between.

But this bubble was different. Besides being fueled by housing purchases and repackaged loans, each with inadequate equity -- doubling down with other people's money -- at the end of the capital-gains rainbow was the right to take up to $500,000 of profit, tax free.


Mr. Smith, like the rest of the George Mason Economics department, is very free market friendly:

Consequently we have the "independent" Fed being driven by market forces to accommodate the long-evident and glaringly least-defensible features of the housing/mortgage markets. Moreover, the moment the Fed abandoned its stance against inflation, the dollar, gold, oil and commodity prices signaled inflation, and now two months later consumer prices have confirmed the signal.

More daring than the action to exempt real estate from the capital gains tax -- and in lasting service to the poor -- would have been actions allowing capital gains on all assets to go tax free, provided that the capital was reinvested -- i.e., not consumed, and yes, good citizens, housing counts as consumption.

Unlike the latest housing bubble, the stock market "excesses" of the 1990s financed thousands of new ventures, some of which found innovative ways to manage the proliferation of new technologies. The result: astonishing, long-term increases in productivity still evident in the most recent quarter.


Think for a moment what would happen to the stock market if capital gains taxes were eliminated. It's a nice thought isn't it?

84 comments:

Dan said...

Major botch in this article.

Specifically: Recall that, in 1997, this bill was sponsored by a Republican lawmaker, and passed both Republican-controlled houses of congress by landslide, veto-proof majorities.

So it's a trifle odd (we'll give the man the benefit of the doubt, and avoid calling it "intentionally misleading") to blame this bill on Clinton.

Joe said...

Just for the record, I have no animus toward Bill Clinton. I actually attended the second inauguration. In the article, Smith does blame Clinton, but I think the important thing to take away is that the treatment of capital gains should be equal - giving real estate an advantage contributed to the housing bubble. As I said, I don't think it was the major contributor, but it would seem that it must have had some effect.

Dan said...

Fair enough; I was responding to the article itself, not so much your post (which for the most part -- other than that eliminating capital gains taxes is a "nice thought" -- I agree with).

Joe said...

Dan,

Captial gains taxes lower the return on capital and therefore restrains the growth of the economy. We should be taxing things we don't want rather than things that we do. I also don't think we should tax income. Why would we want our citizens to have less income? Most taxes, in my opinion, should be of the Pigovian variety. See here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigovian_tax

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As for Pigovian taxation: I agree wholeheartedly about things like a pollution tax -- a corporation that pollutes the environment is taking something away from the population (i.e. clean air/water), and it's right to "charge" them for it. Alcohol and cigarettes are a little different, though -- I agree with things like a cigarette tax to help pay for Bad Things that smoking causes on a broad scale, alcohol taxes to help pay for addiction treatment programs, and so on... but in general, the trouble with that type of "sin tax" is: who decides what's a sin? I'm sure many in government would thrill at the idea of, say, a contraception tax.

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Dan,

This is about to devolve into a political discussion and I don't want to get into that on my work blog. Suffice it to say that we don't agree about progressive taxation. I think of it as self defeating in that it reduces aggregate saving and investment which ultimately is felt by the lower income earners through lower economic growth and a slower increase in the standard of living. There are plenty of other arguments against it, but that I think is the best economic argument. If you want to continue the discussion, send me an email. I welcome the debate.

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