Monday, October 23, 2006

Barron's on the Election

This past weekend's Barron's cover article makes the prediction that the Republican's will hold their majority in the House and the Senate:

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

The writers base this on the amount of money available to the candidates which has been a good predictor in the past. Interestingly, the last time it didn't work that well was 1994 when the Republicans took control. I place more faith in the futures markets which are predicting that the Democrats will take the House while the Republicans will retain the Senate.

No comments: