Rank the following taxes from best to worst: individual income taxes; payroll taxes, corporate income taxes, sales or consumption taxes, and residential property taxes. The vast majority of economists would rank the corporate income tax as being worst and the sales tax and residential property tax as the best.
Unfortunately, the corporate income tax is often the favorite tax of fiscally irresponsible politicians because it is not easily seen. In fact, the corporate tax is paid by workers in lower wages and fewer new jobs, by consumers in higher prices and by savers and investors in lower rates of return. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), based in Paris and not known for favoring lower taxes, published a new study last month, "Tax and Economic Growth," which provides more evidence that the corporate income tax interferes most (as compared with other taxes) with proper resource allocation, productivity growth, and economic efficiency.
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Everything will be all right if we just fix the housing problem. That was the hope investors clung to as they watched Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac crumble this week.
The presidential campaigns reflect a similar faith in housing's curative power. Senator John McCain recently suggested that not merely mortgage-loan defaults but also anxiety about those mortgages was our worst problem: ``Americans are uncertain about this crisis.''
``Three-Bedroom Ranch,'' a Barack Obama campaign commercial, suggests that America needs a ``plan to build'' for the middle-class rather than subsidize corporate interests. The candidates seem to believe that recovery is something with French doors and a new roof.
But what if houses aren't a haven but a prison? What if even a booming real estate market itself is a problem? That's the theory of a winning Phelps -- not Michael Phelps, the Olympic swimmer, but Nobel Prize economics laureate Edmund Phelps of Columbia University. Phelps deplores the collective energy Americans spend on family housing.
``It used to be said that the business of America was business,'' Phelps says. ``Now the business of America is homeownership.'' To grow optimally, he says, America needs to get beyond its house passion.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- After reaching deals with many of the top Wall Street banks over the auction-rate-securities mess, regulators are now turning their focus on brokerage firms not covered by those agreements.
Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin has written to Edward "Ned" Johnson, CEO of Fidelity Investments, asking that Boston-based Fidelity buy back the auction-rate securities that it sold to its clients.
"It is my hope that Fidelity will follow the industry trend and promptly repurchase these securities that it has sold to it customers, many of whom now find themselves unable to access money that they thought was as liquid as cash," wrote Galvin.
"Therefore, I request that Fidelity take immediate steps to resolve this matter on behalf of those customers."
Fidelity obviously does not agree:
Fidelity, though, stood firm in the face of Galvin's letter. "Fidelity is [not] the issuer, underwriter or sponsor of auction-rate securities," said Vin Loporchio, a spokesman for Fidelity. "We do not proactively market auction-rate securities. We believe the underwriters should stand by their securities."
IT MAY BE CURTAINS SOON FOR THE MANAGEMENTS and shareholders of beleaguered housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . It is growing increasingly likely that the Treasury will recapitalize Fannie and Freddie in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, availing itself of powers granted it under the new housing bill signed into law last month. Such a move almost certainly would wipe out existing holders of the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses. Barron's first raised the possibility of a government takeover of Fannie and Freddie in a March 10 cover story, "Is Fannie Mae Toast?"
Giving in to protectionism - In Herbert Hoover's time, Sen. Reed Smoot and Rep. W.C. Hawley proposed a tariff that was to raise effective duties by as much as half. More than a thousand economists signed an open letter warning that the duties would "raise the cost of living and injure the great majority of our citizens."
Blaming the messenger - Punishing the stock market for the 1929 crash was popular in Washington in the early 1930s. Lawmakers attacked the practice of short selling; Senate Banking Committee counsel Ferdinand Pecora hauled J.P. Morgan and other Wall Streeters in for hearings. By 1934, Congress was creating the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Roosevelt administration also prosecuted business leaders, including former Treasury secretary Andrew Mellon and utilities magnate Samuel Insull. The new regulatory culture cut crime and protected investors. But the arbitrary nature of the assault petrified Wall Streeters.
Increasing taxes in a downturn - Hoover more than doubled income tax rates, taking the top marginal rate to 63 percent from 25 percent. FDR hiked the top rate to 90 percent. Perhaps worse, Roosevelt's Treasury crafted taxes to punish business, including an undistributed profits tax and an excess profits tax, that ultimately sucked cash from a capital-starved economy.
Assuming bigger government will bring back growth. There's a sense today that Washington has retreated too much from daily lives. Wall Streeters mutter that "the system" (the financial markets) doesn't work anymore. In the 1930s, people didn't just mutter that -- they believed it. Public-sector expansion seemed the only way to sustain America's promise. New Deal programs did much to alleviate the pain month to month -- many found dignity in six months of work at the Works Progress Administration, the Public Works Administration or the Civilian Conservation Corps. But economics is a competition for scarce capital. Such state solutions tended to suppress the creation of long-term private-sector jobs, as did the aggressive Wagner Act for organized labor.
Ignoring the cost of inconsistency. FDR spoke of "bold persistent experimentation." Obama speaks of "change." Both can do damage. What's more, the list of experiments is always finite. Our bailouts look reassuring, but even Washington cannot rescue the entire economy. And foreign investors wonder where Washington will stop. Already concerned about the inconsistent dollar policy, China is now troubled by the inconsistent rescues.
The Fed's "dual mandate" -- to keep the economy strong and prices stable -- serves to support this mistake. In contrast, the European Central Bank has a single mandate: price stability. No wonder the dollar has been so weak relative to the euro. Imagine two football teams. One with a single mandate: win. The other with a dual mandate: win and keep your uniforms clean. It's clear that the one with the single mandate will have more success in achieving its goals over time.
It is this combination of denial of actual inflation, bad economic models and the political expediency of keeping interest rates low that makes a repeat of past policy mistakes likely. In the end, inflation can be controlled -- the Volcker-Reagan strategy of tight monetary policy and tax cuts still holds the key -- but only if policy makers find the courage.
The problem then and the problem now is the supply and demand for US dollars. Soon after Reagan’s inauguration in 1980, the dollar started a rise that continued until the Plaza Accord of 1985. The trade weighted dollar rose roughly 50% and the price of oil fell by a similar amount. That rise was no accident. It happened because of the tight monetary policy of Paul Volcker and the growth promoting tax policies of Ronald Reagan.
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The fist step should be to clarify the Fed’s mandate. Now, the Fed is tasked with maintaining growth and minimizing inflation. The only way for the Fed to truly accomplish the first goal is to concentrate exclusively on the second. It should also be made clear that inflation is defined as an expansion of the money supply and not a rise in price of an arbitrary basket of goods. The best way to accomplish currency and price stability is to adopt a gold standard but in the absence of political will for such a policy, a single mandate is a good first step.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
In less than one month, oil prices have fallen nearly 22%. That drop happened during a period when our leaders in Washington accomplished exactly nothing of importance that could account for the fall. Sure, President Bush lifted the moratorium on offshore drilling, but that action will have no effect unless Congress follows suit.
Most likely the fall had nothing to do with the impending expiration of the drilling moratorium, but rather is a reaction to the recent strengthening of the US dollar. There has been a lot of discussion over whether the dollar has risen because oil has fallen or if the reverse is true, but based on history, it seems obvious to me that it is the dollar driving oil prices and not the other way around.
The new international tax rankings are out for 2008, and congratulations to Washington, D.C., are again in order. Our political class has managed to maintain America's rank with the second highest corporate tax rate in the world at 39.3% (average combined federal and state).
Only Japan is slightly higher overall, though if you are silly enough to base a corporation in California, Iowa, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or other states with high corporate levies, your tax rate on business income is even higher than in Tokyo. For the first time, the U.S. statutory rate is now 50% higher than the average of our international competitors, continuing a long-term trend as the rest of the world keeps reducing corporate tax rates. (See nearby chart).
A new OECD study, "Taxes and Economic Growth," examines national tax burdens and their impact on growth and incomes in member countries. It concludes that "corporate taxes are most harmful for growth, followed by personal income taxes, and then consumption taxes." The study adds that "investment is adversely affected by corporate taxation," and that the most profitable and rapidly growing companies tend to be the most sensitive to high business tax rates.
The average European nation has tax rates on corporate income 10 percentage points lower than the U.S., but those countries on average raise 50% more as a share of GDP in corporate taxes than does the U.S., according to a 2007 study by the Treasury Department. Ireland with its 12.5% rate captures a higher share of its GDP (3.4%) in corporate taxes than the U.S. does (2.5%) with its 39.3% rate.
Chinese authoritarian capitalism, on display this week in Beijing, has me thinking about America’s democratic capitalism and how we practice it.
Start with the U.S. economy’s most powerful government agency: The Fed, of course. Its decision this week to hold short-term interest rates steady was wrong, in my view; it should have lowered them because recessionary forces continue to increase while wage-price inflation doesn't exist. Wages are dropping in real terms. But my opinion and your opinion count for nothing. The Fed is not directly accountable to American voters, or even to Congress or the President.
Sales at furniture stores rose 1%, the biggest gain in 18 months.
Sales at electronics and appliance stores rose 0.8%.
Sales at hardware and garden stores rose 0.3%.
The higher cost of gasoline was evident not only in the 0.8% rise in sales at gas stations, but also in the 1.1% increase at non-store retailers, such as catalogs and online stores.
Sales at the malls were soft in July. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.3%, including a 0.1% increase at department stores. Sales at clothing stores rose 0.2%.
Sales at bars and restaurants fell 0.2%. Sales at food stores rose 0.4%. Sales at health and personal care stores were flat.
A large portion of [the recent gains] is due to the extension of unemployment insurance benefits, and thus does not necessarily suggest a severe loosening in the labor market.
Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.
Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
Around the world, the press has portrayed the 2008 US presidential election as a choice between freer trader John McCain and “protectionist” Barack Obama. That traditional paradigm has helped the media simplify the differences between the two men. However, such these labels do not accurately describe either candidate. And it does not fully portray the candidate, Mr Obama, who has the more optimistic vision of trade.
The impact of the tax rebates on personal incomes was reduced in June: After getting $48.1 billion from the government in May, individuals received $27.9 billion.
Forcing big oil companies to take a reasonable share of their record breaking windfall profits and use it to help struggling families with direct relief worth $500 for an individual and $1,000 for a married couple. The relief would be delivered as quickly as possible to help families cope with the rising price of gasoline, food and other necessities.
The rebates would be fully paid for with five years of a windfall profits tax on record oil company profits. This relief would be a down payment on Obama’s long-term plan to provide middle-class families with at least $1000 per year in permanent tax relief.
First, Congress rejected a proposal that Fannie and Freddie be barred from paying dividends if they are receiving injections of capital from the federal government. This idea would seem to be the first lesson in a course on Government Bailout 101. The government shouldn't be shoveling taxpayer money in the front door while the company is shoveling dividends to shareholders out the back door.
Freddie Mac paid $1.6 billion in dividends last year while Fannie Mae paid $2.5 billion. Both have dividend yields that are many times higher than the norm. Congress chose to protect the shareholders at the expense of the taxpayer.
Does Pelosi imagine that with so much of America declared off-limits, the planet is less injured as drilling shifts to Kazakhstan and Venezuela and Equatorial Guinea? That Russia will be more environmentally scrupulous than we in drilling in its Arctic?
The net environmental effect of Pelosi's no-drilling willfulness is negative. Outsourcing U.S. oil production does nothing to lessen worldwide environmental despoliation. It simply exports it to more corrupt, less efficient, more unstable parts of the world -- thereby increasing net planetary damage.
Manufacturing employment fell by 35,000 in July, bringing losses over the past 12 months to 383,000. Over the month, job losses were widespread with notable declines in transportation equipment (-8,000), wood products (-4,000), and textile mills (-3,000). Machinery added 6,000 jobs over the month.
Employment in construction was down by 22,000 in July. Construction has shed 57,000 jobs since its September 2006 employment peak, with nearly three-quarters of the decline occurring since October 2007. Nearly all of the July employment
decrease came among specialty trade contractors (-20,000), with both the residential and nonresidential components contributing to the decline.
Within professional and business services, employment services lost 34,000 jobs in July, with nearly all of the decline in temporary help services (-29,000). Since January 2008, employment in temporary help services has declined by 185,000. Computer systems design and related services added 7,000 jobs in July.
Wholesale trade employment decreased by 17,000 over the month, with declines in both the durable and nondurable components. Since its peak in November 2007, wholesale trade has lost 57,000 jobs.
